Abstract
Due to intensive marketing and the rapid growth of online gambling, poker currently enjoys great popularity among large sections
of the population. Although poker is legally a game of chance in most countries, some (particularly operators of private poker
web sites) argue that it should be regarded as a game of skill or sport because the outcome of the game primarily depends
on individual aptitude and skill. The available findings indicate that skill plays a meaningful role; however, serious methodological
weaknesses and the absence of reliable information regarding the relative importance of chance and skill considerably limit
the validity of extant research. Adopting a quasi-experimental approach, the present study examined the extent to which the
influence of poker playing skill was more important than card distribution. Three average players and three experts sat down
at a six-player table and played 60 computer-based hands of the poker variant “Texas Hold’em” for money. In each hand, one
of the average players and one expert received (a) better-than-average cards (winner’s box), (b) average cards (neutral box)
and (c) worse-than-average cards (loser’s box). The standardized manipulation of the card distribution controlled the factor
of chance to determine differences in performance between the average and expert groups. Overall, 150 individuals participated
in a “fixed-limit” game variant, and 150 individuals participated in a “no-limit” game variant. ANOVA results showed that
experts did not outperform average players in terms of final cash balance. Rather, card distribution was the decisive factor
for successful poker playing. However, expert players were better able to minimize losses when confronted with disadvantageous
conditions (i.e., worse-than-average cards). No significant differences were observed between the game variants. Furthermore,
supplementary analyses confirm differential game-related actions dependent on the card distribution, player status, and game
variant. In conclusion, the study findings indicate that poker should be regarded as a game of chance, at least under certain
basic conditions, and suggest new directions for further research.
of the population. Although poker is legally a game of chance in most countries, some (particularly operators of private poker
web sites) argue that it should be regarded as a game of skill or sport because the outcome of the game primarily depends
on individual aptitude and skill. The available findings indicate that skill plays a meaningful role; however, serious methodological
weaknesses and the absence of reliable information regarding the relative importance of chance and skill considerably limit
the validity of extant research. Adopting a quasi-experimental approach, the present study examined the extent to which the
influence of poker playing skill was more important than card distribution. Three average players and three experts sat down
at a six-player table and played 60 computer-based hands of the poker variant “Texas Hold’em” for money. In each hand, one
of the average players and one expert received (a) better-than-average cards (winner’s box), (b) average cards (neutral box)
and (c) worse-than-average cards (loser’s box). The standardized manipulation of the card distribution controlled the factor
of chance to determine differences in performance between the average and expert groups. Overall, 150 individuals participated
in a “fixed-limit” game variant, and 150 individuals participated in a “no-limit” game variant. ANOVA results showed that
experts did not outperform average players in terms of final cash balance. Rather, card distribution was the decisive factor
for successful poker playing. However, expert players were better able to minimize losses when confronted with disadvantageous
conditions (i.e., worse-than-average cards). No significant differences were observed between the game variants. Furthermore,
supplementary analyses confirm differential game-related actions dependent on the card distribution, player status, and game
variant. In conclusion, the study findings indicate that poker should be regarded as a game of chance, at least under certain
basic conditions, and suggest new directions for further research.
- Content Type Journal Article
- Category Original Paper
- Pages 1-16
- DOI 10.1007/s10899-012-9327-8
- Authors
- Gerhard Meyer, Institute of Psychology and Cognition Research, University of Bremen, Grazer Str. 4, 28359 Bremen, Germany
- Marc von Meduna, Institute of Psychology and Cognition Research, University of Bremen, Grazer Str. 4, 28359 Bremen, Germany
- Tim Brosowski, Institute of Psychology and Cognition Research, University of Bremen, Grazer Str. 4, 28359 Bremen, Germany
- Tobias Hayer, Institute of Psychology and Cognition Research, University of Bremen, Grazer Str. 4, 28359 Bremen, Germany
- Journal Journal of Gambling Studies
- Online ISSN 1573-3602
- Print ISSN 1050-5350