Law and Human Behavior, Vol 49(4), Aug 2025, 323-337; doi:10.1037/lhb0000604
Objective: Although strong ideological commitment is often conceptualized as a necessary prerequisite for engaging in extremist violence, few studies have tested this assumption explicitly. The present study examined the relationship between radical beliefs and radical behavior and tested potential moderators between the two. Hypotheses: Individuals with higher levels of ideological commitment were expected to demonstrate more severe radical behaviors and higher rates of violence. Hypothesized risk factors—mental illness, nonextremist crime, and social ties to violent extremists—were expected to moderate this relationship, such that ideological commitment would be a stronger predictor of violence when these factors were absent. The strength of the association was also expected to differ depending on ideological affiliation. Method: This study used a subset of the Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States, a large (N = 2,103), open-source data set of individuals involved in far-right (n = 1,259), far-left (n = 289), and jihadist-inspired (n = 555) extremism. All data were coded on the basis of publicly available information. Outcome measures included radical behaviors and the probability of three maximum criminal severity outcomes: civil disobedience, violent plot involvement, and direct violence. Results: Ideological commitment was positively associated with radical behaviors and civil disobedience (OR = 1.36) but not associated with increased risk of violent plot involvement (OR = 0.95) or direct violence (OR = 1.02). Moderation analyses showed that commitment was positively associated with radical behaviors and violence for jihadist-inspired individuals (who had the lowest base rate of direct violence) but not those in far-right or far-left groups. Other hypothesized moderators were not significant. Conclusions: Ideological commitment does not appear to be a strong predictor of violence for the majority of individuals associated with extremism. Radical beliefs may thus be a poor proxy for violent intent, which has implications for both research and law enforcement practices. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved)