In 2017, New York City (NYC) passed a minimum floor price law (MFPL) to raise the minimum price of a pack of cigarettes to $13.00. Evaluation of the MFPL in NYC is limited and has yet to examine its potential as a pro-equity policy.
Data (n = 20,241; pre-policy n =15,037, post-policy n =5,204) were obtained from the New York State Adult Tobacco Survey, a quarterly repeated cross-sectional survey. Using the Difference-in-Differences approach, we compared changes in reported cigarette prices, cigarette consumption, and smoking status among NYC residents before and after policy implementation to changes in the same outcomes among residents in the rest of the state (ROS) over the same period.
For some smokers, cigarette price increased in NYC for post-policy period; moreover, prices increased more in NYC than in ROS. NYC smokers who reported higher income, more education, or White or “Other” race, reported a bigger price increase than their ROS counterparts. Cigarette consumption decreased more in the post-policy period for people in the ROS, in general and among certain groups. Everyday smoking status decreased similarly in both NYC and ROS, whereas someday smoking status decreased primarily in the ROS during the analysis period.
Cigarette prices in NYC increased after the 2017 MFPL; these increases were greater than those occurring elsewhere in the state, suggesting the policy might be a factor in the change. However, the increases were concentrated among relatively higher priced purchases, and groups with lower smoking prevalence. Changes in smoking status and cigarette consumption did not correspond to study hypotheses.
This study provides an empirical analysis of a real-world policy in tobacco control. It examines the potential of the MFPL in New York City as a pro-equity policy. Findings extend the current MFPL literature and suggest that they may be able to raise cigarette prices for some purchases, but also may have a limited impact on smoking behaviors.