Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, Vol 32(3), Aug 2026, 231-244; doi:10.1037/law0000482
Public sex offender registries were created on the assumption that people with a history of sexual offending present a high and enduring risk for sexual recidivism. Analyzing data from everyone on Michigan’s sex offender registry (n = 45,145), we found that recidivism risk was very low for many registrants—and predictably declined in systematic ways that are relevant to registry design. The sexual recidivism rates were 3%–5% after 5 years and 10% after 20 years. Risk of future offending predictably declined the longer people remained sex-offense-free in the community. Assuming a typical distribution of initial risk levels and the observed time-free in the community, the likelihood of sexual recidivism was very low for approximately half of the registrants: out of 35,000 registrants in the community in Michigan, the risk level for 17,000–19,000 individuals was no different from the likelihood of first-time sexual offending in the general male population (