Decision, Vol 12(3), Jul 2025, 268-285; doi:10.1037/dec0000260
When decision makers receive multiple uncertain forecasts (as with the COVID-19 pandemic), they need displays that will help them to integrate the competing predictions. One display option is presenting the full suite of forecasts. A second is presenting a summary ensemble, reducing cognitive load at the price of obscuring disagreements. One compromise is presenting both, allowing decision makers to tailor their usage, with an even greater cognitive load. A second compromise is presenting one display but allow users to click through to see the other. In two experiments, using a suite of 10 CDC forecasts and an ensemble based on median values, we compared users’ performance with displays presenting the (a) suite, then adding the ensemble; (b) the ensemble, then adding the suite; and (c) the suite and the ensemble combined. Using diverse, online convenience samples and hypothetic scenarios, we found that participants responded similarly to the combined displays, if they saw them initially together or only after seeing the suite or the ensemble. Participants responded differently if they saw just the suite or just the ensemble—as would happen if they did not click through from the single display. Outliers in the suite display appeared responsible for the difference. The result was robust whether the suite displays were ordered randomly, by confidence interval widths, or by median prediction. Comprehension was good with all displays. These results indicate the importance of ensuring that decision makers receive and understand both the suite and the ensemble perspective when there are multiple uncertain forecasts. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved)