Behavior Modification, Ahead of Print.
The identification of behavioral markers that predict the trajectory of behavior could guide the allocation of limited clinical resources to improve efficacy, efficiency, and safety. As a preliminary exploration of this possibility, we conducted a retrospective records review of incident reports for aggression displayed by residents at a secure juvenile detention center. Our purpose was to evaluate latency to first aggression as a candidate behavioral marker for predicting subsequent high-rate aggression. Our results indicate that latency to first aggression may be a high-quality predictor of subsequent high-rate aggression, and we identified specific cutoff scores that added high levels of predictive value. We use these data to demonstrate a process by which clinicians and researchers can identify predictor variables and use them to guide subsequent allocation of clinical resources. Practical, conceptual, and ethical considerations related to applications of this process as well as potential directions for future research in this area are discussed.