Abstract
Background
Preterm birth (PTB) is a significant cause of neonatal mortality and long-term health issues. Accurate prediction and timely prevention of PTB are essential for reducing associated child mortality and morbidity. Traditional predictive methods face challenges due to heterogeneous risk factors and their interaction effects. This study aims to develop and evaluate six machine learning (ML) models to predict PTB using large-scale children survey data from Shenzhen, China, and to identify key predictors through Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis.
Methods
Data from 84,050 mother–child pairs, collected in 2021 and 2022, were processed and divided into training, validation, and test sets. Six ML models were tested: L1-Regularised Logistic Regression, Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Naive Bayes, Random Forests, Support Vector Machine, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Model performance was evaluated based on discrimination, calibration and clinical utility. SHAP analysis was used to interpret the importance and impact of individual features on PTB prediction.
Results
The XGBoost model demonstrated the best overall performance, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) scores of 0.752 and 0.757 in the validation and test sets, respectively, along with favorable calibration and clinical utility. Key predictors identified were multiple pregnancies, threatened abortion, and maternal age of conception. SHAP analysis highlighted the positive impacts of multiple pregnancies and threatened abortion, as well as the negative impact of micronutrient supplementation on PTB.
Conclusion
Our study found that ML models, particularly XGBoost, show promise in accurately predicting PTB and identifying key risk factors. These findings provide the potential of ML for enhancing clinical interventions, personalizing prenatal care, and informing public health initiatives.