Abstract
Objective
In this paper, we seek to update and expand the understanding of whether the patterns of competition in two-round elections in the United States exist in other countries.
Methods
Using insights from the well-developed literature on two-round elections in the U.S. South, we analyze an original data set covering two-round presidential systems in Latin America. We focus on the likelihood that elections will go to a second round, and, once a second round happens, the role that first-round electoral strength and incumbency status play in determining the ultimate outcome.
Results
Unlike previous work, our statistical model accounts for unobservable factors that simultaneously affect the likelihood of a second round occurring and of the first-round leader winning that round.
Conclusions
Patterns of competition across U.S. and Latin American two-round elections are similar, though incumbency status may be a bigger asset in the latter than in the former.