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Partisan Media, Electoral Predictions, and Wishful Thinking

Abstract

Public predictions about the results of forthcoming elections have important consequences for political campaigns and support for governmental institutions. This research examines whether partisan media facilitate wishful thinking, which occurs when candidate preference biases electoral predictions. We use two experiments to test whether partisan news exposure increases wishful thinking about election outcomes. Our results suggest that when partisan media cover the in-party as winning the horse race, likeminded viewers are more likely to predict the in-party will win. On the other hand, when partisan media cover the in-party as losing the horse race, like-minded viewers adjust their predictions downward. The effects of unfavorable horse-race coverage on electoral expectations are magnified when viewers watch the partisan news outlet they prefer. Meanwhile, watching counter-attitudinal media appears to affect electoral predictions only when partisans do not also watch like-minded news. Overall, we show that where people get their news, and how partisan media cover the horse race, has important effects on electoral expectations.

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Posted in: Journal Article Abstracts on 03/29/2018 | Link to this post on IFP |
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