Completing the Three Stages of Doctoral Education: An Event History Analysis

Doctoral programs have high dropout rates of 43% representing the highest among all post-baccalaureate programs. Cross sectional
studies of doctoral students’ retention have showed the importance of financial aid in predicting degree completion. These
studies however, do not estimate the labor market’s effect on doctoral student retention and neglect the longitudinal nature
of doctoral study and the multiple requirements that make doctoral education a three-stage process. This research study examines
the effect of various factors, including financial aid and labor market conditions, on the likelihood that doctoral students
will complete the three stages of doctoral education: transition, development, and research. The results show that although
financial aid as a whole is important, the type of financial aid received is even more significant and has differential impacts
on doctoral students’ retention at each stage. The study concludes that research assistantships have the highest likelihood
of degree completion compared to students with other forms of financial support. Labor market conditions are also an important
factor affecting doctoral student retention with higher expected earnings motivating doctoral students in the later part of
their programs to complete their degrees.