Abstract
Numerous studies on affective forecasting have demonstrated that people frequently underestimate their ability to adapt to
adverse circumstances. But to date, these studies have not assessed people’s affective forecasts early in the experience of
these new circumstances. We present two longitudinal studies of people experiencing new adversities. In the first study 54
patients experiencing new limb amputations were recruited to participate in a mailed survey. Patients assessed their well-being,
functioning and general health (1) two weeks after discharge from the hospital and (2) three months later. At the first time
point patients also predicted their well-being, functioning and general health at three months. In the second study 55 patients
experiencing new colostomies were recruited and received mailed surveys at three time points; (1) at baseline (within one
week after leaving the hospital), (2) one month after baseline, and (3) seven months after baseline. Again we assessed their
actual and predicted well-being, functioning and general health. In both studies the actual change was compared to the change
expected by patients. Across both studies, patients expected to significantly improve on all three domains but reported little
actual improvement. Together, these studies demonstrated that people with new disabilities overestimate hedonic adaptation—they
expect their overall well-being to improve more than it actually does.
adverse circumstances. But to date, these studies have not assessed people’s affective forecasts early in the experience of
these new circumstances. We present two longitudinal studies of people experiencing new adversities. In the first study 54
patients experiencing new limb amputations were recruited to participate in a mailed survey. Patients assessed their well-being,
functioning and general health (1) two weeks after discharge from the hospital and (2) three months later. At the first time
point patients also predicted their well-being, functioning and general health at three months. In the second study 55 patients
experiencing new colostomies were recruited and received mailed surveys at three time points; (1) at baseline (within one
week after leaving the hospital), (2) one month after baseline, and (3) seven months after baseline. Again we assessed their
actual and predicted well-being, functioning and general health. In both studies the actual change was compared to the change
expected by patients. Across both studies, patients expected to significantly improve on all three domains but reported little
actual improvement. Together, these studies demonstrated that people with new disabilities overestimate hedonic adaptation—they
expect their overall well-being to improve more than it actually does.
- Content Type Journal Article
- Pages 1-12
- DOI 10.1007/s10902-011-9281-7
- Authors
- Yvette Peeters, Department of Medical Decision Making, Leiden University Medical Center, P.O. Box 9600, 2300 RC Leiden, The Netherlands
- Dylan M. Smith, Department of Preventive Medicine, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA
- George Loewenstein, Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
- Peter A. Ubel, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
- Journal Journal of Happiness Studies
- Online ISSN 1573-7780
- Print ISSN 1389-4978