The researchers developed models to predict how quickly people’s scores would decline on a test of thinking and memory skills. Then they compared the models to actual results from people over time. They studied 961 people with an average age of 65 — 310 had mild cognitive impairment and 651 had mild dementia. All had the amyloid-beta plaques in their brains that are an early sign of Alzheimer’s disease and are targeted by the new drugs.