Criminal Justice and Behavior, Ahead of Print.
There is demand for valid risk assessment of individuals with child sexual exploitation material (CSEM) offenses. We compared the predictive performance of the Risk Matrix 2000/Sex (RM2000/S) and the Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) among 365 men convicted of CSEM offenses. In fixed 5-year follow-up analyses, the CPORT (area under the curve [AUC] = .73) had significantly higher predictive accuracy than the RM2000/S (AUC = .66) for any sexual recidivism. The predictive difference for CSEM recidivism was not statistically significant. A meta-analysis found the CPORT had large effects in predicting sexual recidivism (AUC = .75) and moderate accuracy for CSEM recidivism (AUCs = .65 and .66), while the RM2000/S had moderate accuracy in predicting any sexual recidivism (AUC = .66; insufficient studies of CSEM recidivism). Results suggest a tool developed specifically for CSEM offending, such as CPORT, may perform better at predicting any sexual recidivism than adapting a general sexual offending risk tool.