Psychology of Violence, Vol 16(1), Jan 2026, 18-31; doi:10.1037/vio0000607
Objective: Acute risk factors for family violence are variables that can change rapidly and are associated with an increased risk of imminent family violence. Identifying these factors could enhance the understanding of family violence and assist correctional staff to assess and respond to short-term changes in risk. Existing risk measures contain possible acute factors but have not been empirically tested to see if they predict short-term (i.e., imminent) recidivism. Method: Using a large sample of individuals under community supervision in New Zealand (N = 16,001), we examined the extent to which the item and total scores on the Acute subscale of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR) demonstrated statistical properties expected of acute risk factors for family violence. Results: Although most recidivism events were not preceded by sudden increases in DRAOR Acute subscale or item scores, change scores over short periods were significantly associated with imminent family violence recidivism, after controlling for baseline scores on those measures and static risk. Items with the strongest relationship with recidivism were access to victims and employment problems; unexpectedly, recidivism was not preceded by acute problems with interpersonal relationships. Change scores meaningfully improved the identification of recidivism events compared to scores earlier in supervision but not compared to the most up-to-date assessment information. Conclusions: The DRAOR Acute subscale, and several of its component individual items, demonstrated properties consistent with acute risk factors for family violence. Correctional professionals should consider incorporating these factors into assessment and use them to guide risk management and intervention. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved)