Over the past decade, research on illicit tobacco trade in low- and middle-income countries has expanded considerably. In Latin America, independent studies have been conducted in at least seven countries, including Mexico, where the illicit cigarette market was estimated at 8.5% in 2017, with wide variation across cities. However, longitudinal evidence remains scarce because collecting comparable data over time is challenging. This follow-up study, conducted in 2023, provides one of the few longitudinal assessments available in the region.
Discarded cigarette packs were collected between January and March 2023 across 126 randomly selected Basic Geostatistical Areas (AGEB, Área Geoestadística Básica) in 11 Mexican cities (the 8 surveyed in 2017 plus 3 additional cities). A total of 12 607 packs were classified according to compliance with national packaging requirements, brand legality and the presence of the tax code. Statistical tests adjusted for the sampling design were used to compare proportions.
In 2023, the estimated share of illicit cigarettes across the study cities was 18.2%, ranging from <1% to 43.4%. Among the eight cities with follow-up data, illicit trade increased from 8.5% in 2017 to 20.4% (p<0.001). Estimates were consistent across the three legality definitions, except in one city where a local legal brand frequently lacked the tax code.
The substantial variation in both magnitude and evolution across cities suggests that factors beyond taxation influence illicit trade. Mexico should implement a comprehensive strategy to combat illicit trade, including the ratification of the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products.