The emergence of viral memes about oral nicotine products (ONPs) on TikTok is concerning, as popular content on a youth-centred platform may motivate youth use. We investigate when the viral emergence of (ONP) TikTok videos occurs in relation to accelerated growth of ONP sales.
We used NielsenIQ aggregated US sales data to identify sales growth inflection points from 1 January 2021 to 28 October 2023 and TikTok’s research application programming interface (API) to collect ONP-related videos posted during the same time frame. Video view counts were aggregated at the same 28-day intervals as sales data to identify viral spikes in views. Joinpoint regression identified the timing of any key inflection points in the sales data.
ONP content first emerged in an initial viral spike in views between September 2022 and January 2023 (14.4% of views), followed by a second between July and October 2023 (80.9% of views). Joinpoint regression identified a single inflection point where the average percentage change across the 4- week period significantly increased from 2.94% to 6.22% in April 2023, following the first spike and preceding the second.
Following >3 years of steady market growth, a viral spike in TikTok views precedes a significant acceleration in ONP sales followed by a larger spike in views. Although further research is needed to determine whether TikTok views offer a reliable predictor of period-to-period sales, our findings suggest that spikes in specific content signalling effective penetration of youth subcultures may be indicative of acute market changes.