ABSTRACT
Although stress mindsets have been proposed as important determinants of how individuals respond to stress, little is known about whether naturally occurring stress mindsets prospectively predict mental health trajectories. Stress mindsets—beliefs that stress is either debilitating or enhancing—are promising but understudied predictors of mental health trajectories in college students. Using the Pandora Bio mobile ecological assessment app, 120 college students completed baseline measures of stress mindsets and repeated assessments of depression, anxiety, distress, flourishing, and social well-being over 8 weeks. Pre-registered multilevel models suggested that baseline stress mindsets predicted depressive symptom trajectories only: higher endorsement of a stress-is-enhancing mindset was associated with more favourable depressive symptoms trajectories over time. Exploratory analyses indicated these associations were direct and persisted when accounting for baseline anxiety and demographics. Findings suggest stress mindsets are a small but meaningful predictor of depressive symptom trajectories and highlight the potential of ecological screening tools for detecting emerging risks and delivering real-time interventions to students who need them the most.