ABSTRACT
This study investigated whether physical activity buffers the association between negative life events and life satisfaction, distinguishing between dependent (e.g., divorce) and independent (e.g., bereavement) stressors as well as within- and between-person processes across one- and 2-year intervals (indicating short- and medium-term intervals, respectively). Data from two large panel studies (N = 98,224) were analysed. Participants were classified as high (weekly or more) versus low (less than weekly) in physical activity. Three-variable multiple-group random intercept cross-lagged panel models separated within-person dynamics from between-person associations. Dependent events predicted declines in life satisfaction across both datasets. This effect was attenuated among physically active individuals over 2-year intervals but not over 1-year intervals. Independent events showed no consistent medium-term effects on life satisfaction. However, in the 1-year interval, independent events were associated with subsequent declines in life satisfaction only among physically active individuals, whereas no association emerged among those with low physical activity. With respect to the reversed pathways, life satisfaction predicted subsequent dependent events across both groups and intervals. In contrast, higher life satisfaction was associated with a lower likelihood of subsequent independent events only among active individuals. At the between-person level, buffering effects emerged only for the 2-year association between independent events and life satisfaction. Physical activity is not a uniform buffering factor but relates to stress–well-being dynamics in a manner that depends on stressor type, temporal scale, and analysis level. Effects are conditional and context-specific rather than broadly protective.