Abstract
Behavioral economic theory posits that the relative reinforcing value of alcohol (i.e., demand) prospectively predicts alcohol use behaviors, although this has rarely been examined longitudinally. This study examined bidirectional associations of alcohol demand with alcohol use and problems over time. Community adults (N = 1,395; M
age = 34.32, 59.93% female) completed measures of alcohol demand, alcohol use, and alcohol-related problems in three assessments, spaced 6 months apart. Random-intercept cross-lagged panel analyses modeled time-invariant and reciprocal time-varying associations of alcohol demand indices with alcohol use and problems. Between participants, we observed large, positive associations of demand intensity (i.e., consumption at zero cost), demand elasticity (i.e., price sensitivity), O
max, (i.e., maximum expenditure), and breakpoint (i.e., price suppressing consumption to zero) with alcohol use and problems. Within participants, lower elasticity forecasted greater alcohol use and problems, with the latter also forecasted by higher O
max; reciprocally, lower elasticity and higher O
max were each forecasted by greater alcohol use. Breakpoint exhibited inconsistent within-person associations with alcohol use and problems, and intensity was only forecasted by changes in alcohol use. Results support an etiological role of alcohol demand in changes in alcohol use and problems over time, albeit principally for demand indices capturing the elastic portion of the demand curve.