Abstract
Low fertility intentions among childless individuals constitute a critical factor underlying the low-fertility crisis. Drawing on an integrated theoretical framework, this study employs four studies to examine the mechanisms through which beliefs about social mobility influence fertility intentions. Results indicate that social mobility beliefs positively predict fertility intentions, though age-stratified analyses reveal that this direct association is driven by post-reproductive adults, consistent with the view that prospective fertility intentions among younger adults require a mediating mechanism (Study 1); experimental evidence confirms the causal effects of social mobility belief on fertility intention and fertility efficacy among reproductive-age childless adults (Studies 2 and 3); fertility efficacy mediates this relationship (Study 3); and a quasi-experimental design provides support for the proposed mediator’s role (Study 4). These findings elucidate a ‘social mobility beliefs, fertility efficacy, fertility intentions’ mechanism, offering a novel perspective for understanding fertility intentions and important implications for enhancing them by fostering positive societal beliefs and strengthening individual efficacy.