Climate change, conflict, and fragility converge most acutely in the Sahel and Horn of Africa, creating vulnerability cycles that undermine livelihoods, fuel displacement, and strain already fragile governance systems. Extreme climate events interact with weak institutions and insecurity, disproportionately burdening women, youth, and displaced groups. Yet these same groups are also central to resilience – their leadership and local knowledge are among the region’s strongest assets for adaptation, peacebuilding, and mediation. Assessments piloted by Oxfam in five countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, Ethiopia, and Somalia) confirm that these crises are deeply interconnected and mutually reinforcing. This Discussion Paper provides contextual understanding as well as programmatic recommendations.
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