To understand, and identify predictors of, long-term post-injury (i.e. 12 years post-injury) disability outcomes for migrants and non-migrants. This 12-year longitudinal study followed participants with entitlement claim injuries registered with New Zealand’s universal no-fault injury insurer between 2007 and 2009. Information was collected about migrant status, other sociodemographic, health and disability characteristics, and injury characteristics. Disability outcome information was collected 12 years later. Of 1543 people interviewed 12 years post-injury, 1497 had disability and migrant status data available; 20% were migrants (n = 301). Migrants reporting inadequate pre-injury household income or those who perceived their injury as a threat to life at the time of injury were more likely to experience disability 12 years post-injury (aRR 2.08; 95% CI 1.09–4.03, aRR 2.93; 95%CI 1.17–6.69, respectively). Hospitalised injured migrants were significantly less likely to have long-term disability (aRR 0.18; 95%CI 0.04–0.55) than those not hospitalised. We found sociodemographic and injury-related characteristics were independently associated with long-term disability among migrants. We highlight that some characteristics, ascertained early in the injury pathway, predict risk of long-term disability. Early post-injury interventions focused on improving disability outcomes for migrants may also have long-term impacts.