Macroeconomic deterioration continues amidst ongoing social unrest and change of government
Key Messages
In April, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in many areas of Sudan. Food security is expected to continue to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Darfur, Blue Nile, Kordofan, Kassala, and much of Red Sea states through September due in large part to persistent macroeconomic difficulties. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is likely among IDPs in SPLM-N controlled areas of South Kordofan and in Jebel Mara of Darfur at the August/September peak of the lean season.
In early April, the Sudanese military led the overthrow of President Omar al-Bashir. There are ongoing discussions for the formation of a joint civilian-military council, though protests for immediate transition to a civilian-led government continue. These political events have resulted in a general environment of uncertainty.
Macroeconomic challenges are expected to continue during the outlook period and staple food prices will likely remain at least 250–300 percent above average. Livestock and labor prices, although increasing, are unlikely to keep pace with staple food price increases and poor households’ purchasing power will remain below average.
The 2018/19 main season harvest extended through April in some areas, coinciding with the ongoing winter wheat season. Land preparation for the 2019/20 season has not yet started in most of the semi-mechanized and irrigated sectors as a result of the delayed 2018/19 harvesting and fuel and cash shortages. Land preparation is likely to start later than normal and access to labor opportunities will likely remain below normal in May.