Conclusions For people with CMDs, uncertain and negative RTW-expectations predict later benefit recipiency, and expectations seem particularly important for those at risk of or on sick leave. For those at risk of sick leave, benefit recipiency at follow-up denoted a transition onto sick leave or long-term benefit, while those on sick leave had remained so or were receiving long-term benefits. Addressing RTW-expectations in occupational healthcare services or vocational rehabilitation might be beneficial in early stages or even prior to a sick leave episode.