Which cardiovascular risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and predict future events in advanced age in New Zealand?

To examine the relationship between cardiovascular risk factors, cardiovascular health at baseline and predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events at 28 months in advanced age.

A total of 108 adults in advanced age were recruited. A standardised questionnaire, comprehensive physical assessments, physical activity and fasting blood samples were analysed. CVD events at follow-up were ascertained from hospital records.

Sixty-seven per cent of participants had CVD at baseline. Physical activity (OR (95% CI): 0.99 (0.98–1.0); P = 0.04) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (OR (95% CI): 0.3 (0.09–1.0); P = 0.046) were independently associated with CVD. The 28-month incidence rate of CVD was 6 cases/100 person-years. Baseline diastolic BP (OR (95% CI): 0.9 (0.9–1.0); P = 0.03) and waist circumference (OR (95% CI): 1.06 (1.01–1.1); P = 0.01) were independently associated with subsequent CVD events at follow-up.

Physical activity and HDL levels were inversely associated with CVD at baseline but were not predictive of future CVD events. CVD in advanced age warrants further investigation.