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Validation of a Temperature Prediction Model for Heat Deaths in Undocumented Border Crossers

Abstract  

Heat exposure is a leading cause of death in undocumented border crossers along the Arizona–Mexico border. We performed a
validation study of a weather prediction model that predicts the probability of heat related deaths among undocumented border
crossers. We analyzed a medical examiner registry cohort of undocumented border crosser heat- related deaths from January
1, 2002 to August 31, 2009 and used logistic regression to model the probability of one or more heat deaths on a given day
using daily high temperature (DHT) as the predictor. At a critical threshold DHT of 40 °C, the probability of at least one
heat death was 50 %. The probability of a heat death along the Arizona–Mexico border for suspected undocumented border crossers
is strongly associated with ambient temperature. These results can be used in prevention and response efforts to assess the
daily risk of deaths among undocumented border crossers in the region.

  • Content Type Journal Article
  • Category Original Paper
  • Pages 1-8
  • DOI 10.1007/s10903-012-9619-1
  • Authors
    • Tim Ruttan, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Arizona Health Sciences Center, 9616 E. Grand Teton Rd, P.O. Box 245057, Tucson, AZ 85724-5057, USA
    • Uwe Stolz, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Arizona Health Sciences Center, 9616 E. Grand Teton Rd, P.O. Box 245057, Tucson, AZ 85724-5057, USA
    • Sara Jackson-Vance, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Arizona Health Sciences Center, 9616 E. Grand Teton Rd, P.O. Box 245057, Tucson, AZ 85724-5057, USA
    • Bruce Parks, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Arizona Health Sciences Center, 9616 E. Grand Teton Rd, P.O. Box 245057, Tucson, AZ 85724-5057, USA
    • Samuel M. Keim, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Arizona Health Sciences Center, 9616 E. Grand Teton Rd, P.O. Box 245057, Tucson, AZ 85724-5057, USA
    • Journal Journal of Immigrant and Minority Health
    • Online ISSN 1557-1920
    • Print ISSN 1557-1912
Posted in: Journal Article Abstracts on 04/23/2012 | Link to this post on IFP |
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