How Long Do We Expect to Live? A Review of the Evidence

How long people expect to live sets an important context for longevity risk in retirement planning and may contribute to the
acceptability of policies to raise pension age. However, there have been few studies representative of a national population
on subjective longevity. This paper reviews the available evidence. It finds that despite some studies reporting that subjective
longevity is close to average measures in population life tables the prevailing tendency is to underestimate lifespans. Men
generally reflect that they have lower actual longevity than women on average, but men are more optimistic, so that women
are more likely to underestimate their likely longevity. People may take account of some mortality risk factors in estimating
their own longevity, but appear not to understand the true extent of risk. There is little data on how people think about
longevity or why they choose a particular estimate of their own likely lifespan. Thus, international evidence suggests potential
for longevity risk in individual retirement planning and raises significant questions about the policy implications which
can only become more acute in ageing populations.